THE GEXfreak FIELD GUIDE

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37 resources
REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS · BACK-TESTED TRADES

Read the Context scorecard

0of 3 scored setups qualified

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1 had too few trades · 1,195 back-tested trades

9 stocks · 2018–2024 · levels rebuilt at the 5-minute mark · research only
Tutorial · Setups & evidence19 min read
Weekly

Read the setup scorecard in Context

What the Context tab’s setup rules show once their levels are rebuilt at the 5-minute mark: the tests each rule had to pass, and none did. Stock trades back-tested on recorded prices, nine stocks, 2018–2024.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS

How long does a wall last?

A wall is recomputed as price moves.
0%25%50%75%100%151021
Call walls, SPY and QQQ · share still on the same strike after 1, 5, 10 and 21 sessions · rebuilt wall (solid) and the earlier nearest-expiry wall (dashed)
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Weekly · Monthly

How long does a wall last?

On SPY and QQQ, May 2018 to December 2024, a call wall rebuilt at 09:36 was still on the same strike the next session 59% of the time, after five sessions 33%.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS · BACK-TESTED TRADES

How many trades until you know?

Four times the trades halve the doubt.
±0.0±0.2±0.4±0.6±0.8±1.020501002005001,0002,000All trades, 15:45: 312 trades, ±0.23RThrough 28 March 2023 (fallback prices): 222 trades, ±0.29RFrom 29 March 2023 (native prices): 90 trades, ±0.37RQuarterly months (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec): 102 trades, ±0.36ROther months: 210 trades, ±0.31RAAPL: 49 trades, ±0.48RINTC: 29 trades, ±0.74RMSFT: 60 trades, ±0.46RNKE: 26 trades, ±0.65RNVDA: 71 trades, ±0.42RTSLA: 49 trades, ±0.54R
11 measured 95% ranges · one rule, rebuilt at the 5-minute mark · gold line: ±3.6/√trades
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Weekly · Monthly

How many trades until you know?

How many trades before an average can be told apart from luck? A rule of thumb worked on a call-wall breakout rebuilt at the 5-minute mark: about 1,000 trades for a small average, which is about 20 years at one trade a week.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS

Map levels and random lines

A random line at a matched distance, for every level.
1,161 symbol-sessions · 2023–2024 · bars: real lines per kind on the 10:00 ET map
Blog · Setups & evidence13 min read
Intraday

What “held 75%” really measures

Rebuilt morning map levels held only slightly more often than random lines, and a level on the far side of the day’s move holds by definition. Recorded QQQ, SPY and IWM sessions, 2023–2024.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS · BACK-TESTED TRADES

Is the monthly flip a floor?

Four situations at the flip, each counted.
  • Support fade146
  • Resistance fade157
  • Break down72
  • Break up52
SPY and QQQ · 2018–2020 · 427 recorded events at the monthly flip
Blog · Setups & evidence13 min read
Intraday · Monthly

Is the monthly flip a floor?

On SPY and QQQ, 2018–2020, a bounce from the monthly gamma flip did no better than a random line the same distance away, and the data make a floor lift above about +4 points unlikely.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS

Monthly expiry Fridays measured

Months with two different walls.
SPY46 of 80QQQ31 of 806-name pool178 of 480
2018–2024 · solid: monthly sessions with two different walls · dashed: all monthly sessions
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Intraday · Monthly

Does price end monthly expiry Friday near the walls?

Over monthly expiry Fridays from May 2018 to December 2024, we did not detect price finishing the last half hour nearer the closer call or put wall than a random line would.

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REAL HISTORICAL DATA

The Monday after monthly expiry

80 monthly expiries, 70 Mondays and 78 Fridays to compare.
SPY and QQQ · 2018–2024 · counts, not dates · filled: a Monday after that could be kept · hollow: holiday or early close
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Monthly

Monday after monthly expiry: calmer or wilder?

Does the Monday after monthly options expiry have a bigger or smaller range than other Mondays? A test on SPY and QQQ, 2018–2024, and how large a difference it could have missed.

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REAL HISTORICAL DATA

The last 15 minutes of month-end

78 month-ends · SPY and QQQ · before the closing cross
818111912201221122212231124
Month-ends counted per year, May 2018 to December 2024 · minute prices, not levels
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Monthly

Month-end’s last 15 minutes: bigger, direction unclear

SPY and QQQ, 78 month-ends, May 2018 to December 2024: the last 15 minutes before the closing cross moved farther than on ordinary days, and the test could not tell which way.

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REAL PRICES · REBUILT LEVELS

Do site walls beat a mirror line over a month?

Where the day-1 walls and their mirror lines sat.
Call wall 580.00Put wall 570.00
SPY, the 21 sessions from Nov 1, 2024: the day-1 call and put walls and a mirror line for each. 80 months, 2018 to 2024.
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Monthly

Do site walls beat a mirror line over a month?

Is a wall rebuilt at the 5-minute mark on a month’s first session reached any more or less often than a mirror line? On SPY and QQQ, May 2018 to December 2024, no difference was detected.

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REAL HISTORICAL DATA

Does the market drift at the same time every day?

A session, cut into half hours.
SPY, Dec 31, 2024. 18 tickers × 13 half hours = 234 cells, 32,969 ticker-sessions, 2016 to 2024.
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Intraday

Does the market drift at the same time every day?

Averaged across 18 stocks and ETFs, September 2016 to December 2024, no half hour of the session drifted at any size the test could see. One stock in one half hour held up in both periods, before costs, and it is not shown to be a trade.

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REAL HISTORICAL DATA

The last half hour of the day

1,656 SPY sessions · 1,659 QQQ sessions · before the closing cross
16618248192472025021250222462324924
Sessions counted per year, May 2018 to December 2024 · solid: the two periods compared · minute prices, not levels
Blog · Setups & evidence12 min read
Intraday

Last half hour’s share of the day: no change detected

SPY and QQQ, 2018 to 2019 against 2023 to 2024: no change detected in the last half hour’s share of the day’s price movement, and a test that could only see a change of about a fifth of that share or more.

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